China's CO2 emissions have shown a promising decline or stagnation over the past 18 months, according to recent analysis. This provides solid evidence that the world's largest polluter might have achieved its peak CO2 emissions target much earlier than anticipated. The rapid integration of solar and wind power generation, with impressive growth rates of 46% and 11% respectively in the third quarter of this year, has played a pivotal role in keeping China's energy sector emissions flat, despite an increase in electricity demand.
China's commitment to renewable energy is evident with the addition of 240GW of solar capacity and 61GW of wind power in the first nine months of 2025, setting the stage for yet another renewable energy record in the coming year. Last year, China's solar power installations surpassed the combined efforts of the rest of the world, with a remarkable 333GW of solar power added to its grid.
The analysis, conducted by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) for Carbon Brief, revealed that China's CO2 emissions remained unchanged from the previous year in the third quarter of 2025. This achievement can be attributed, in part, to declining emissions in the travel, cement, and steel industries.
These findings emerge as global leaders gather in Brazil for Cop30, amidst growing urgency in the fight against the climate crisis. Notably, China's President Xi Jinping did not attend the leaders' summit at the UN climate conference, but the Chinese delegation is actively participating in the talks. Similarly, Xi's US counterpart, Donald Trump, has also not attended and has not sent a negotiation team.
Last week, UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized that failing to limit global heating to 1.5C would constitute a "moral failure and deadly negligence." On Monday, André Corrêa do Lago, the Brazilian diplomat and president of Cop30, praised China's progress in green technologies, stating, "China is coming up with solutions that are for everyone, not just China." He added that rich countries seemed to have lost their enthusiasm for tackling the climate crisis.
Lauri Myllyvirta, the lead analyst at Crea, noted that China's overall emissions trend for 2025 could still show a small increase, depending on the last quarter's performance. However, assuming that the trend of previous years continues, with the fastest growth in electricity demand and associated emissions occurring during the summer months, China's CO2 emissions could record a decline for the full year.
China's dual carbon goals are ambitious: peak emissions by 2030 and net neutrality by 2060. In September, the country unveiled its latest climate targets, aiming to cut overall greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% of their peak by 2035. While experts argue that these targets are not sufficient to prevent global catastrophe and fall short of the necessary 30% cut, China has a history of surpassing its climate goals.
Li Shuo, the director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, a US-based think tank, recently stated that China's latest climate targets should be viewed as a baseline rather than a ceiling. However, Myllyvirta cautions that some areas of China's economy are resisting the trend of decarbonization. While oil demand and emissions in the transport sector fell by 5% in the third quarter, other sectors saw a 10% growth, particularly in the production of plastics and other chemicals.
China is also likely to miss its target for reducing carbon intensity, which refers to CO2 emissions per unit of gross domestic product, between 2020 and 2025. This means that steeper reductions will be necessary for the country to achieve its 2030 goal of reducing carbon intensity by 65% compared to 2005 levels.
All eyes are now on China's 15th five-year plan, which will outline the government's priorities and policies for the 2026-2030 period. While the full text will not be published until next year, Chinese officials have indicated that low-carbon energy systems will be a key focus of the plan.
This development is a glimmer of hope in the fight against climate change, but it also raises questions about the effectiveness of global climate negotiations and the role of major emitters in driving meaningful change. What are your thoughts on China's progress and the broader implications for the climate crisis? Feel free to share your opinions in the comments!
