From Bilateral to Voicing the Global South – IFA
In a moment when global alignments are reshaping rapidly, New Delhi is reevaluating its foreign ties with renewed resolve. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s diplomatic sprint across three regions from December 15–18, visiting West Asia, the Horn of Africa, and the Gulf, signals this shift among others. Modi’s three-country itinerary to Jordan, Ethiopia, and Oman marks a turning point in India’s growing global engagement. This is more than a routine multi-country tour: it’s a deliberate message that India is expanding its influence where strategy, history, and the future converge. India’s aim to deepen political, economic, and cultural bonds across the Middle East and Africa transcends ceremonial diplomacy; it emphasizes human connections, strategic significance, long-term objectives, and rising diplomatic confidence.
These trips may reflect India’s concern about its role amid the intertwined geoeconomic, geopolitical, and geostrategic dynamics of the Horn of Africa, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. First, with twenty-first-century geopolitics likely to be shaped in the Indo-Pacific, India’s growing geo-economic strength, industrial capacity, maritime power, and military capabilities—developed in partnership with strategic allies and regional partners—will significantly influence regional geopolitics. Second, the West Asia and East Africa conflicts—part of a tumultuous year that disrupted the lives of millions and threatened regional and global stability—underscore the need for deeper collaboration to maintain peace and security. In an era of increasing turbulence—from Middle East tensions to global supply-chain disruptions—India’s outreach seeks to reclaim diplomatic space and cement long-standing ties as major powers expand their influence in Africa.
Against this backdrop, Modi’s visit provides a crucial lens into the broader aims of India’s diplomacy in a pivotal period for global diplomacy. This analysis explains the core reasons behind Modi’s first visit to Ethiopia, held from December 16–17, and explores the potential outcomes of the bilateral relationship. Three mutual benefits emerge for Ethiopia and India: leveraging the Red Sea and Horn of Africa’s strategic location for shared security, advancing South–South cooperation to amplify Global South voices, and strengthening bilateral ties toward shared ambitions.
Harnessing the Red Sea and Horn of Africa’s strategic importance: The Horn of Africa and the Red Sea have undergone major transformations since the start of the 21st century. The region’s infrastructure interdependencies and evolving trade corridors continue to shape economic and political connections among states. Today, the Red Sea is seen as a critical alternative sea-lane, with any regional conflict risking not only local peace but also maritime security along this vital corridor, potentially destabilizing the broader area given ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The involvement of external powers has further transformed the region into a strategic hub for the Indian Ocean, even though India’s engagement in the Horn of Africa has previously focused on peacekeeping and anti-piracy missions. Modi’s stop in Addis Ababa—the African Union’s capital and a key Horn of Africa player—signals India’s intent to boost political engagement and regain strategic space in a region essential to global governance, connectivity, and maritime security. Ethiopia’s large population, long-standing leadership in African multilateralism, and strategic position at the convergence of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden make it a natural anchor for India in the area.
The Western Indian Ocean, spanning the Indo-Pacific, the Red Sea, and the Horn of Africa, presents governance and security challenges that require coordinated efforts between Ethiopia and India. Ongoing volatility in these waters underscores the need for a balanced approach to protect economic and geopolitical interests across the broader maritime domain. Because the Red Sea and Horn of Africa are central to both nations’ strategic outlooks, a measured strategy helps maintain their reputation as trusted security partners regionally and beyond. Modi’s visit thus reflects India’s recalibration in African geopolitics while strengthening multilateral linkages.
Advancing South–South Cooperation: A core element of India’s Africa strategy is South–South cooperation—uniting developing nations of the Global South for mutual gain and shared prosperity. India seeks to deepen Africa-focused engagement through Ethiopia as a gateway to the continent. Modi’s Ethiopia visit represents a milestone in India’s Africa outreach, especially as major powers intensify their presence in Africa. With Ethiopia’s growing economy and pivotal role in African diplomacy, ties with Addis Ababa embody India’s broader ambitions on the continent. Thought leaders, such as Samir Bhattacharya of the Observer Research Foundation, describe Modi’s trip as a sign that India aims to host the next India–Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) in Ethiopia, leveraging the AU’s Addis Ababa headquarters as a diplomatic pivot. The visit is poised to yield new economic commitments, enhanced political coordination, and expanded development partnerships, revitalizing India–Ethiopia relations and helping New Delhi secure a steady foothold across Africa. In essence, Modi’s Ethiopia visit signals India’s drive to enhance development cooperation, commerce, and strategic engagement with Africa while reinforcing South–South collaboration and uncovering fresh opportunities.
Strengthening bilateral ties: Beyond hosting the AU, Ethiopia remains a central player in the Horn of Africa. The two nations have collaborated in agriculture, health, education, and infrastructure for many years. Modi’s current visit to Ethiopia marks the first by an Indian prime minister since 2011 and comes at the invitation of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali. The trip is likely to lay the groundwork for a broader, longer-term bilateral framework, with trade talks at the forefront and a focus on diversifying commerce, deepening security cooperation, expanding investment opportunities, and strengthening people-to-people links.
In sum, Modi’s visits to Jordan, Ethiopia, and Oman are likely to reshape India’s global posture by reinforcing West Asia strategy, deepening Africa ties, and strengthening leadership among the Global South. These engagements reflect a broader effort to expand trade and security partnerships, reassert regional influence, and project growing confidence on the world stage. They also highlight India’s intention to nurture old friendships and cultivate new ones in regions that are likely to shape global dynamics in the decades to come.
Specifically, Modi’s Ethiopian trip is expected to boost India’s strategic footprint in the Horn of Africa, a region increasingly important for trade, security, and connectivity. With the AU headquartered in Addis Ababa, the visit underscores India’s rising engagement with Africa and the broader Global South. It could mark a milestone in India–Africa relations within the framework of the Africa–India Forum Summit.
Ethiopia’s strategic position, together with India’s development commitments, offers opportunities for cooperation across multiple domains: expanding development partnerships, increasing trade, advancing agriculture and technology collaboration, and strengthening education and capacity-building initiatives that reinforce India as a reliable partner in Africa’s pursuit of prosperity. Modi’s trip may also bolster India’s stance as a champion of the Global South agenda, advocating fair global governance, robust multilateralism, and climate action. Overall, Ethiopia and India have the potential to become effective bridge-builders, expanding alliances and voicing the Global South’s future amid rising regional volatility.
PM Modi’s Three-Nation Tour Signals Strong Global Leadership Momentum 2025 (https://gulfmagazine.co/pm-modis-three-nation-tour-signals-s/#ethiopia-deepening-africafocused-engagement)
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A Strategic Stop In Addis Ababa: How India Is Repositioning Itself In African Geopolitics (https://www.etvbharat.com/en/bharat/how-india-is-repositioning-itself-in-african-geopolitics-enn25120906569)
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