Monday's analyst upgrades and downgrades
Inside the Market's roundup of some of today's key analyst actions
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber's Take on Canadian Tech Companies:
Paul Treiber, an analyst at RBC Dominion Securities, offers a balanced perspective on the fourth-quarter 2025 financial performance of Canadian technology companies. While he anticipates 'healthy' results, he also acknowledges the 'poor software sentiment' that is unlikely to improve in the short term. Treiber attributes this to the stable macro environment and the market's risk-averse nature, which may lead to disproportionate downward valuation re-ratings, especially concerning AI disruption.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades:
CGI Inc. (GIB.A-T): Upgraded to 'outperform' from 'perform' with a target price of $150 from $165. The average target on the Street is $178.48.
Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T): Upgraded to 'outperform' from 'perform' with a target price of $4,800 from $5,600. The average target is $4,695.43.
Kinaxis Inc. (KXS-T): Upgraded to 'outperform' from 'perform' with a target price of $200 from $235. The average target is $227.40.
Lumine Group Inc. (LMN-X): Upgraded to 'outperform' from 'perform' with a target price of $42 from $50. The average target is $49.
OpenText Corp. (OTEX-Q/OTEX-T): Downgraded to 'sector perform' from 'outperform' with a target price of $33 from $35. The average target is $38.75.
Topicus.com Inc. (TOI-X): Downgraded to 'outperform' from 'perform' with a target price of $160 from $190. The average target is $194.99.
Vitalhub Corp. (VHI-T): Downgraded to 'outperform' from 'perform' with a target price of $12 from $13.
Other 'Best Positioned' Stocks:
Celestica Inc. (CLS-N/CLS-T): 'Outperform' rating with a target price of US$400. The average is US$370.75.
Shopify Inc. (SHOP-Q/SHOP-T): 'Outperform' rating with a target price of US$200. The average is US$180.64.
Desjardins Securities Analyst Bryce Adams on Pricing and Production:
Bryce Adams, an analyst at Desjardins Securities, maintains a 'constructive' view on pricing, citing improving demand optimism and anticipated supply constraints for copper and uranium. He predicts that producers in his coverage universe will benefit from these supportive macro tailwinds, particularly those with gold credits. Adams also notes the positive impact of record gold prices on producers with gold credits.
Target Price Adjustments:
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T): Downgraded to 'hold' from 'buy' with a target price of $40 from $34. The average target on the Street is $38.03.
Cameco Corp. (CCO-T): Upgraded to 'buy' from 'hold' with a target price of $185 from $160. The average is $147.47.
Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T): Downgraded to 'hold' from 'buy' with a target price of $74 from $65. The average is $70.44.
Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T): Downgraded to 'buy' from 'outperform' with a target price of $35 from $30. The average is $28.94.
Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T): Downgraded to 'buy' from 'outperform' with a target price of $36 from $30. The average is $31.11.
Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T): Downgraded to 'buy' from 'outperform' with a target price of $18 from $18.50. The average is $16.94.
Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T): Downgraded to 'hold' from 'buy' with a target price of $45 from $37.50. The average is $40.11.
National Bank Financial Analyst Vishal Shreedhar on Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd.:
Vishal Shreedhar, an analyst at National Bank Financial, predicts 'solid' gross margin expansion in the retail segment for Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd. (CTC.A-T) and attributes the upcoming earnings per share growth to an extra week in the fourth quarter of 2025. He projects earnings per share for the quarter at $3.72, which is 15 cents lower than the consensus estimate but a significant gain from $3.24 a year ago.
Target Price Adjustment:
- Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd. (CTC.A-T): Target price raised to $201 from $197.
TD Cowen Analyst Aaron MacNeil on CES Energy Solutions Corp.:
Aaron MacNeil, an analyst at TD Cowen, downgrades CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T) to a 'hold' recommendation, citing the realization of its fair value and the no longer sufficient justification for a 'buy' rating. MacNeil acknowledges CES's operational excellence and market leadership but notes the current valuation leaves little room for further upside.
Target Price Adjustment:
- CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T): Target price raised to $16 from $12.
Desjardins Securities Analyst Chris MacCulloch on Oil Markets:
Chris MacCulloch, an analyst at Desjardins Securities, expresses 'growing constructive' views on oil markets heading into earnings season, citing stronger-than-expected winter price support due to rising geopolitical supply risk. He maintains a constructive outlook for natural gas price fundamentals and highlights the top picks as integrated and natural gas-weighted producers.
Target Price Adjustments:
Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T): Target price raised to $33 from $33.50. The average is $29.26.
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T): Target price raised to $79 from $74. The average is $67.99.
Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU-T): Target price raised to $70 from $68. The average is $71.90.
Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP-T): Target price raised to $14 from $13.50. The average is $14.
RBC Dominion Securities Analyst Bart Dziarski on Financial Companies:
Bart Dziarski, an analyst at RBC Dominion Securities, provides insights into Q4/25 earnings for financial companies, focusing on key areas such as Brookfield entities, P&C insurance, TMX, EFN, and GSY. He reaffirms his top investment ideas for the sector, including Brookfield Corporation, Element Fleet, and Fairfax.
Target Adjustments:
Sprott Inc. (SII-T): Target price raised to $186 (Street high) from $132. The average is $156.67.
IGM Financial Inc. (IGM-T): Target price raised to $65 from $51. The average is $61.60.
Power Corp. of Canada (POW-T): Target price raised to $69 from $68. The average is $68.
Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (AD.UN-T): Target price raised to $22 from $21. The average is $24.75.
Scotia Capital Analyst Ben Isaacson on Forestry Stocks:
Ben Isaacson, an analyst at Scotia Capital, highlights the accelerated interest of deep value investors in the forestry space, citing stocks trading at a 50-90% discount to replacement cost. He sees the group at 20-40% below mid-cycle fair values, with EBITDA set to improve through '27, assuming a feeble recovery in overall demand.
Rating Upgrades:
Canfor Corp. (CFP-T): Upgraded to 'sector perform' from 'sector underperform' with a target price of $16, up from $13. The average is $15.96.
Interfor Corp. (IFP-T): Upgraded to 'sector outperform' from 'sector perform' with a target price of $14, up from $13. The average is $12.22.
Western Forest Products Inc. (WEF-T): Target price raised to $18, exceeding the $15.50 average, from $12.50.
